Correlation does not necessarily prove causation

By -

Just because an observed trend is in sync with another does not prove one causes the other or even that one influences the other. Many lobbyists and advocates build entire arguments around evidence of correlation. What they don't mention is that the concept of "correlation" is nothing more than a label for a mathematical relationship between two or more series of numbers. It has nothing to do with proving any causal relationship between the phenomena these numbers represent.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular this week

Day 2: Senate hearing backfires against a rattled Senator Leila de Lima!

By -
Image
Just watched Day 2 of Senate hearing. Tables were turned once again on De Lima, without any effort it seems from the PNP or Duterte's senate allies. This must really be karma at work, or Duterte's magic is really strong. De Lima opened the session by saying she had asked ABS-CBN, Inquirer, and GMA 7 to submit their "kill list" databases and methodology for compiling the lists. However, only GMA 7 submitted. Strange. If those lists were being prepared properly, shouldn't these media groups have their databases and methodology on hand at any time? Or were those lists haphazardly done? Sandra Cam showed up in the middle of the hearing and sat directly behind De Lima. But Cam disappeared after a while, so viewers were not treated to scratching and hair-pulling. A group of women wearing dark glasses, masks, and headscarfs sat in a row on one area–I don't know why De Lima made them dress like jihadist terrorists, but they were her witnesses. (No offense mean...
Read more

Over 100M-peso cost of #DongYanWedding shouldered by GMA Network as publicity investment!

By -
Image
I was correct with my gut feelings. My friendly butiki, who listens to everything inside the executive offices of GMA7, confirmed that it was the network that paid for everything (repeat, everything) in the so called 'royal wedding'. It was over Php100m on the wedding day alone, not including other expenses in the pre-nuptial activities. This is an eye-popping amount if it is just a wedding expense (as I am one of those who think that a 20m wedding is already stupid and insensitive in a Third World setting, even if one could afford a 500m one). Over 100m, however, is a justifiable amount, even cheap vis-a-vis the ROI, if it is accounted as marketing and advertising expense of a large corporation that regularly spends much more anyway in their ads and promos. If the network has been able to project that their signature stars are bigger than those from competition, then they would have been able to deliver the message that GMA7 is the bigger kid in the block (don't get me...
Read more

Georgina Hernandez struggles to defend Leni Robredo's video to the United Nations

By -
Image
Leni Robredo is like a cancerous tumor who needs to be removed as soon as possible. As long as she’s occupying the VP post, our country won’t be able to move forward. The drug lords, the gambling lords, illegal miners, police scalawags etc. will keep defying President Duterte for as long as Leni is there, waiting in the wings. They’ll keep destabilizing the country and trying to oust President Duterte, because they know they have a dummy ready to take over. But if Leni is out, they won’t have any incentive anymore to keep destabilizing the country. There won’t be any point, because they won’t be able to control the successor. They’ll be forced to behave. There’s no doubt that Leni was acting in bad faith when she did that UN video. Anyone in President Duterte’s team who says otherwise, or tries to make excuses for her by saying she’s just being “used” or “misled”, needs to have his brain and his loyalty checked. Just watch this interview of Leni’s spokesperson, Georgina He...
Read more

Poor people in the Philippines seem to prefer poverty over aspiring to be not poor

By -
Image
Sadly, a MAJORITY of the poor people here are bad people. That is WHY they are poor. They disrespect others, they disrespect themselves, and they disrespect God’s creation. Exactly how do they think they’ll be rewarded for that? If you genuinely had empathy, you would be able to get inside their heads and understand why they do these things, and perhaps know how to fix it. However, you are confusing “empathy” with “sympathy”. I have yet to meet a poor person who actually WANTS to do the things necessary to escape poverty. The funny thing is, everyone can see that I’m more successful than they are. They think this is because I’m “rich”. I’m sure a lot of them are full of jealousy (as benign0 describes) and sit around thinking “ha, it’s not fair, that foreigner is so rich and I’m so poor. I guess it’s OK if I steal his stuff”. Which they do. Regularly. I grew up poor. I know how it feels to be hungry, all the time, every day. I decided I didn’t like feeling like that. I’m successf...
Read more