If I were a presidentiable, or anyone thinking of some available national position in 2016, I would think a thousand times about running, or if I run, which party would I side. Several big chickens are now coming home to roost. Depending on the timing and the intensity of the "roosting", 2016 will be a year like no other. If they come home simultaneously, the impact will be beyond any of the projections and prognosis we are seeing today.
We have names for these chickens. Let us start with West Valley Fault and El Niño. If a 7.2 earthquake strikes Luzon near, or during, the campaign period, then anyone being endorsed by the Liberal Party will be dead in the water, or dead beyond recognition as those who died in the slipper factory in Valenzuela — because as usual PNoy's govt will fuck up again as they fucked Yolanda. Thus, they have to be careful what they pray for — it is noteworthy that they would make WVF a headline competing with the news that the ad hoc committee railroaded BBL. If the timing of that is intentional, then a timing of an earthquake during the campaign period would be some coincidence too that could be interpreted as providential and intentional even if we try not to be superstitious — at the very least, it would definitely be something to think about. If it is true that El Niño is strong this year, then the full impact will start being felt in Sept. Then, we are looking at a dramatic rise in unemployment in the last quarter of 2015 and the first half of 2016. This would put into focus that PNoy has really done nothing for the unemployed. Would Mar Roxas or Grace Po want to be identified with PNoy under such situation? They are taking a lot of risk just by ignoring Nature.
It has already been suggested time and again that PHL start a program as those being slowly implemented by ASEAN cities. That program is nothing but following the urban planning model of Singapore. Singapore had the commonsense of making all the most flood prone areas into protected open spaces, parks, or mini forest within the concrete jungle. Metro Manila should now include in this category those areas within the fault line. Such project will be very costly and will take years and decades, but somehow it has to be started. At the very least, they should stop allowing high rise being built on top of fault line (gosh, Market-Market, Serendra, and the International School in BGC are right on top of the WVF). Well, Gloria at least had the sense of trying to start a project in this direction via the dredging of Laguna Bay, but alas PNoy stopped the project on suspicion of tongpats. But now that we are being asked by an international court to pay the Belgian company that got the project, what is the saving from tongpats that PNoy is talking about? What saving is he talking about anyway when he gives away PDAF and DAP to Napoles. And now, that he is not allowed to use PDAF, he has threatened legislators that they could join Enrile, Jinggoy and Bong if they vote against BBL.
The other chicken is called South China Sea. It now appears the US has taken off their gloves and are dealing with the issue directly. This means they could no longer trust PHL and PNoy. If PNoy is a puppet of the US, then it is now proving that he is a puppet that has not been subtle about it. I would also not trust a puppet who can't hide it and who just follow instructions to the letter without taking into account that there are 25 ways to Sunday. On the other hand, why would I be afraid of being called a US puppet unless I am one of those who still live in the illusion of the ancient world of Mao Tse Tung, or some time prior to the collapse of the Berlin Wall. In this day and age, if I seek mutual cooperation with the US and at the same time seek constructive engagement with China, and not just focus and put everything on a case filed with an international tribunal, then they can call me a puppet all they want, it will have no meaning. I think the last straw for the US was the ramming of the BBL down our throat. To an American, even if they want the result, the methodology is just plain stupidity. They can't deal with one who has a one track mind who can't see collateral damages that invite more aggressive reactions in the days to come. But now that the US has taken a direct hand, PHL is really now relegated to the sidelines, and things could escalate without us even being able to voice our interest. Again, we are looking at things even before 2016.
The other chicken is the economy. PNoy's propaganda is that his Daan Matuwid has created an atmosphere that created the bullish macro numbers. Of course, this is all illusion for PNoy any economic policy or strategy he could call his own. Most economies still attribute Gloria's policies as being responsible for what is happening today. But things will soon be exposed. Feds are about to hike the rates, and we will see an exodus of hot money from PHL exposing that we had a relatively very low FDI. OFW remittances are already slowing down. The ASEAN Integration will exacerbate port congestion. PNoy is the only admin in the world that fucked up an MRT maintenance program, the issuance of car plates and driver's licenses, just for the sake of substantially raising the funds needed by a political war chest. Etc etc. We are seeing a fucked up economy before 2016.
If all the above converge at the same time, the big corruption of Binay will look small vis-à-vis PNoy's incompetence, negligence, narrow mindedness and just plain stupidity…and actual corruption if we really think about it. And PHL would face a very uncertain future for Hitler too loved the Boy's Scouts.
In the first place, why do we have a very narrow choice of presidentiables. Can we still hope for a knight in shining armor, or should Pinoys start thinking of something drastic. Might as well that we go to war in Mindanao, and/or with China with knives and bolos since our generals already pocketed the money to purchase helicopters, ships, bullets. Maybe PHL needs a war as a cleansing process to change the mentality and apathy of Pinoys. A delusional peace is after all just delaying what is inevitable.
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