Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Onus is on COMELEC to disprove mounting allegations of electoral fraud in #Election2016

Ito ang sagot ko sa article na sinulat ni Atty. Emil Maranon III, dating Chief of Staff ni dating COMELEC Chaiman Sixto Brillantes Jr, at inilathala ng Rappler na pinamagatang EXPLAINER: What Marcos Jr shoud do to prove election fraud.

Ipinadala ko ang sagot na ito kagabi pero hanggang ngayon hindi nila nilathala. Kaya ipost ko na lang rito.

(May pangalawang article din ang na inilathala ang Rappler na pinamagatang Election data quash Marcos' cheating pattern claim. Sasagutin ko rin ito at ipost ko rin dito. Hindi ko na ipapadala sa Rappler kasi di naman nila ipopost.)

Fast election results do not necessarily prove honest and clean elections. If speed is the principal criteria by which to judge the election's credibility as Atty. Maranon III implied, then magicians, known for their sleight of hand or speed at which their tricks are swiftly and deftly executed, must be true purveyors of miracles instead of deceiving illusionists.

Atty. Maranon III's gathered narrative is not all correct. He charged that Team Marcos claimed his lead "decreased by about 1% to 2% every update for 26 times." Based on available data from the transparency server, the lead of Sen. Marcos in the four immediately succeeding updates after an uptick in his lead following the injection of the "cosmetic script" spiraled down by 23%, 45%, 16% and 15%, successively, virtually wiping out his lead of close to 1 million votes.

Atty. Maranon III posits the argument of Team Robredo that Sen. Marcos was able to take the early lead because his bailiwicks like the "Solid North" transmitted results first while Rep. Robredo's bailiwicks in Bicol, Visayas and parts of Mindanao, came in much later.

Sen. Marcos won big in Metro Manila with a voting population of over 10% of the total registered voters. Its precincts are no doubt teeming with voters far exceeding those in rural areas. Thus, Team Robredo's argument that they have transmitted first than largely rural Bicol, Visayas and parts of Mindanao where the precincts are not as densely packed with voters like in Metro Manila does not hold water. Also, largely rural "Solid North" according to their argument transmitted first than similarly situated Robredo bailiwicks. What makes the Marcos bailiwicks uniformly transmit first and the Robredo bailiwicks uniformly transmit much later?

Based on my own experience, which mirrors exactly the same conditions as now prevailing in the case of Sen. Marcos, I can only posit this theorem – the Marcos bailiwicks must transmit first to determine his "maximum plausible position" (MPP). Once this MPP is determined, the catch-up game is on with enough number of votes in precincts held in reserve to neutralize the Marcos MPP. It is noteworthy to mention that the injection of the "cosmetic script" occurred after this MPP was determined.

If Atty. Maranon III wishes to dispute this theorem, I will present the official data from Biliran in 2010 to prove my point.

Atty. Maranon III argues that the best way for Sen. Marcos to prove election fraud is to match the printed election returns with the results transmitted and reported in the COMELEC's official website and file an electoral protest if he is like minded with the Presidential Electoral Tribunal. Otherwise, any other action merits Atty. Maranon III's harsh rebuke as "more foolish" than the "utterly foolish" changing of the script midstream.

This is easier said than done with more than 94,000 precincts both here and abroad. Considering the very limited time with which Sen. Marcos has until official proclamation of the presumptive winner, this option, while no doubt the best way to prove fraud, is not the only timely solution to the public's nagging doubts on the integrity of the elections courtesy of the injection of the "cosmetic script." Besides, the official COMELEC website by which comparison must be made is not even working as of this writing.

Additionally, if spurious replacement ballots can be manufactured as was the case in 2013 and stuffed into protested ballot boxes to make sure any manual recount in electoral protests will conform with the printed election returns, what guarantee do we have that that the election returns will not suffer the same fate and the chain of custody will not be broken until all of it reach Team Marcos. (See Pictures Below)

While this method of Atty. Maranon III is the legal but clearly dilatory way to do it, it does not afford the public immediate answers and justice. At best, the answer can come almost 6 years from today. At worse, the answer may not even come at all as in the case of Roxas versus Binay.

Ordinarily, without the dubious changing of the script, there is no compulsion for the COMELEC and SMARTMATIC to offer a timely solution to the people demanding for answers. But consider the following circumstances:
1. The changing of the script is in clear violation of protocols established to insure the integrity of the elections;
2. This is the second instance in which the same person, directly or indirectly, committed the violation, the first being in 2013;
3. The fact that it was allegedly for "cosmetic changes" imply there was no overriding necessity to do so;
4. The "cosmetic changes" ploy is totally unbelievable as the system was made and written by Spanish-speaking programmers where the letter "ñ" is prevalent they could not have missed it, either at the development level or in the testing activities conducted;
5. The injection was made at the critical moment when the system was already running and the votes were being tallied for public view in clear disregard of the reputation and business of the supplier, risks of disastrous effects on the system or the network, and the integrity of the elections; and,
6. The statistical data clearly showed a marked deviation between those obtaining prior to and after the injection of the "cosmetic script."

These circumstances clearly militate against the argument of Atty. Maranon III. Electoral protests are expensive, dilatory, and protracted. It does not offer the public timely solution that could restore whatever little is left of the tattered integrity of the automated election system run by SMARTMATIC. Only a full and unimpeded audit of the system and the platforms used within a span of about two weeks can offer that timely and effective solution.

Sen. Marcos does not need to offer a solution by proving fraud. The Comelec must prove there was no fraud, not by simply proffering unbelievable excuses backed up with nothing substantial but the mere saliva of its defenders, but by concrete transparent steps. It cannot be heard to complain for it is primarily to blame.

Glenn Chong as posted on Facebook:

No comments:

Post a Comment

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...