If Bongbong Marcos files a candidacy for the presidency in October, that act by itself (just the filing) will be a symbolic slap in the face of PNoy. It would an insult on the Aquinos, even if Bongbong himself is married to one who is of the Aquino clan. The downside of that is that 2016 will deteriorate into personal attacks. Because it will be personal, media will focus on Bongbong vs PNoy's candidate, but really, directly or indirectly, on PNoy himself. Binay and all the rest of the candidates will be fighting for air-time, but would end up as bystanders to the whole drama. This drama could only play out in 2016, not in 2022.
If that drama plays out, Binay could say goodbye to all his ambitions. If he is smart, however, he will kind of wiggle his way that it will be made to appear he is on the side of PNoy, but still deliver the message that he is his own independent self. But, that would be a tricky proposition, very complicated for tacticians and strategists. If Binay manages that, Bongbong will have a hard time in the campaign. It will be two against one.
Civic groups will have to do their part, so that discussions will remain focus on BBL, South China Sea, unemployment, agriculture, infrastructure, and of course, corruption. They will have to be doubly creative as they will fight for air time that will be pulled like magnet to all the personal drama. They have to, or 2016 campaign will just be another exercise in futility, wasted on irrelevant issues, as before.
If Bongbong gets back to Malacañang, it will of course mean the complete trashing of the Aquinos. PHL can count it as a new era, a new phase. Maybe, it may also be looked at as the office of the president getting back its dignity, justified or not — it is just that the atmosphere or the ambiance of Malacañang had this marketplace feel to it for more than a couple of decades now. Whatever, for good or bad, Bongbong will mean a new ball game in the Philippines.
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