Friday, November 14, 2014

Political planets need to align to beat #Binay's formidable election winning machine

I think we PNoys are all experts in people power and know the parameters that trigger one: (1) The presence of an issue that is understandable by society across the board, and the opposing opinions to the issue are practically clear cut; (2) an exasperated feeling among the populace, or an almost palpable environment where you know something is stirring up with each passing day; (3) the elite, though staying in the background, organizes a core group and via the media and other PR means further stokes the public sentiment; (4) a trigger that ignites an already combustible situation, as the coup attempt by Ramos and Enrile in EDSA1 and the boogie dance (hehehe) by Tessie Oreta in EDSA2; (5) the middle class and some of society's elite openly participate in the resulting mass action.

I think there were two mass actions in the beginning of Gloria's term; these failed because of the absence of parameter(5). Trillanes' two attempts also failed because parameters(2), (3) and (5) were not in the mix. When Cory went to Assumption College in an attempt to topple Gloria, Cory had (1), (3) and (5), but not (2) and (4), so it ended "hilaw" Recall that Gloria was installed by EDSA2 with high expectations, but she turned out to be a snake in the grass. In a way, she neutralized any people power by being so corrupt. After her, people will always have second thoughts about people power as it might install a more corrupt one than the previous. I think they coined a term for this: people power fatigue.

I will surmise that people power fatigue lingers in PNoy's term. Yes, he was installed through an election, but that election was unusual in the sense that it was overshadowed by the emotional bandwagon triggered by Cory's death. So like Gloria, BS Aquino in a way was installed with high expectations by people power and turned out to be a big disappointment - though, not necessarily a snake in the grass, but more like a comedian who makes nobody laugh; certainly a rich brat who thinks everyone else is a brat like him. (Heard from the grapevine that during cabinet meetings, presenters often repeat their presentations because PNoy really doesn't get anything on first explanation. "He sits there intently listening and you would have thought he got it, but no, everything went over his head. In some cases, he would make a comment that is so irrelevant that you wonder whether you are in the same page, the same room, or what." I was laughing and laughing when I heard that - but gosh, how did he become a president. "He likes very graphic presentations, though, especially those which are almost cartoonish." I thought why not just give him a comic book. Well, didn't Osmena tell us PNoy is hardheaded?)

If Binay gets elected, he would not have been installed by people power, i.e. people power as we have defined it here. His election would be similar to Erap's election. Thus, we could already discount people power fatigue in his term. Similar to Erap, Binay does not have good relationship with MBC. That means ingredients (3) and (5) are already in the cooking mix, though still in low boil, even before he takes office. That also means that business people will be looking at him with critical eyes. And if he is indeed corrupt, it would not take long before all the other ingredients come into the dynamics of PHL politics.

The unknown quantity here, however, is the Alpha Phi Omega (APO) fraternity, of which Binay is a member. It is a very cohesive group as my cousin who is an APO tells me that they will be supportive of Binay "whether he goes to jail or the Palace". It is not the usual political network so it is very easy to underestimate it. But, they have the depth and the reach that could make any political machinery look like a mom and pop operation. There is an APO in almost every school from Aparri to Jolo and an APO in every level of the PHL society. They are formidable; when they saw that Binay was still lagging behind surveys with two weeks to go in the campaign, they mobilized everyone accepting no excuse from members. During the counting of votes, they were very visible. Maybe, this is the reason why Binay is arrogantly confident to a point he does not care about making mistakes. He seems careless, why?

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  1. Hi Benigno, regards to your cousin. - APO brod

  2. Strong the circle we......


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